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Geological Society of London Scientific Statement: what the geological record tells us about our present and future climate

View ORCID ProfileCaroline H. Lear, Pallavi Anand, Tom Blenkinsop, Gavin L. Foster, Mary Gagen, Babette Hoogakker, Robert D. Larter, Daniel J. Lunt, I. Nicholas McCave, Erin McClymont, Richard D. Pancost, Rosalind E.M. Rickaby, David M. Schultz, Colin Summerhayes, Charles J.R. Williams and Jan Zalasiewicz
Journal of the Geological Society, 178, jgs2020-239, 28 December 2020, https://doi.org/10.1144/jgs2020-239
Caroline H. Lear
1School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Main Building, Park Place, CF10 3AT, UK
Roles: [Writing – original draft (Lead)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Caroline H. Lear
  • For correspondence: [email protected]
Pallavi Anand
2School of Environment Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
Tom Blenkinsop
1School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Main Building, Park Place, CF10 3AT, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
Gavin L. Foster
3National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
Mary Gagen
4Geography Department, Swansea University, Swansea, SA2 8PP, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
Babette Hoogakker
5Lyell Centre, Heriot Watt University, Research Avenue South, Edinburgh, EH14 4AP, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
Robert D. Larter
6British Antarctic Survey, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
Daniel J. Lunt
7School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
I. Nicholas McCave
8Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EQ, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
Erin McClymont
9Department of Geography, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
Richard D. Pancost
10School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queens Road, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
Rosalind E.M. Rickaby
11Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3AN, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
David M. Schultz
12Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
Colin Summerhayes
13Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Lensfield Road, Cambridge CB2 1ER, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
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Charles J.R. Williams
7School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
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Jan Zalasiewicz
14School of Geography, Geology and the Environment, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
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Executive Statement

Geology is the science of how the Earth functions and has evolved and, as such, it can contribute to our understanding of the climate system and how it responds to the addition of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere and oceans. Observations from the geological record show that atmospheric CO2 concentrations are now at their highest levels in at least the past 3 million years. Furthermore, the current speed of human-induced CO2 change and warming is nearly without precedent in the entire geological record, with the only known exception being the instantaneous, meteorite-induced event that caused the extinction of non-bird-like dinosaurs 66 million years ago. In short, whilst atmospheric CO2 concentrations have varied dramatically during the geological past due to natural processes, and have often been higher than today, the current rate of CO2 (and therefore temperature) change is unprecedented in almost the entire geological past.

The geological record shows that changes in temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations have direct impacts on sea-level, the hydrological cycle, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and the acidification and oxygen depletion of the oceans. Important climate phenomena, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoons, which today affect the socio-economic stability and food and water security of billions of people, have varied markedly with past changes in climate.

Climate reconstructions from around the globe show that climate change is not globally uniform, but tends to exhibit a consistent pattern, with changes at the poles larger than elsewhere. This polar amplification is seen in ancient warmer-than-modern time intervals like the Eocene epoch, about 50 million years ago and, more recently, in the Pliocene, about 3 million years ago. The warmest intervals of the Pliocene saw the disappearance of summer sea ice from the Arctic. The loss of ice cover …

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Journal of the Geological Society: 178 (1)
Journal of the Geological Society
Volume 178, Issue 1
January 2021
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Geological Society of London Scientific Statement: what the geological record tells us about our present and future climate

Caroline H. Lear, Pallavi Anand, Tom Blenkinsop, Gavin L. Foster, Mary Gagen, Babette Hoogakker, Robert D. Larter, Daniel J. Lunt, I. Nicholas McCave, Erin McClymont, Richard D. Pancost, Rosalind E.M. Rickaby, David M. Schultz, Colin Summerhayes, Charles J.R. Williams and Jan Zalasiewicz
Journal of the Geological Society, 178, jgs2020-239, 28 December 2020, https://doi.org/10.1144/jgs2020-239
Caroline H. Lear
1School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Main Building, Park Place, CF10 3AT, UK
Roles: [Writing – original draft (Lead)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Caroline H. Lear
  • For correspondence: [email protected]
Pallavi Anand
2School of Environment Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Tom Blenkinsop
1School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Main Building, Park Place, CF10 3AT, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Gavin L. Foster
3National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Mary Gagen
4Geography Department, Swansea University, Swansea, SA2 8PP, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Babette Hoogakker
5Lyell Centre, Heriot Watt University, Research Avenue South, Edinburgh, EH14 4AP, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Robert D. Larter
6British Antarctic Survey, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Daniel J. Lunt
7School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
I. Nicholas McCave
8Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EQ, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Erin McClymont
9Department of Geography, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Richard D. Pancost
10School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queens Road, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Rosalind E.M. Rickaby
11Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3AN, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
David M. Schultz
12Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Colin Summerhayes
13Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Lensfield Road, Cambridge CB2 1ER, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Charles J.R. Williams
7School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Jan Zalasiewicz
14School of Geography, Geology and the Environment, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK
Roles: [Writing – review & editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site

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Geological Society of London Scientific Statement: what the geological record tells us about our present and future climate

Caroline H. Lear, Pallavi Anand, Tom Blenkinsop, Gavin L. Foster, Mary Gagen, Babette Hoogakker, Robert D. Larter, Daniel J. Lunt, I. Nicholas McCave, Erin McClymont, Richard D. Pancost, Rosalind E.M. Rickaby, David M. Schultz, Colin Summerhayes, Charles J.R. Williams and Jan Zalasiewicz
Journal of the Geological Society, 178, jgs2020-239, 28 December 2020, https://doi.org/10.1144/jgs2020-239
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  • Article
    • Executive Statement
    • Introduction
    • 1. What does the geological record of climate change look like?
    • 2. Why has climate changed in the past?
    • 3. Is our current warming unusual?
    • 4. What does the geological record indicate about global v. regional change?
    • 5. When Earth's temperature changed in the past, what were the impacts?
    • 6. How does the geological record inform our quantification of climate sensitivity?
    • 7. Are there past climate analogues for the future?
    • 8. How can the geological record be used to evaluate climate models?
    • 9. What is the role of geology in dealing with the climate emergency for a sustainable future?
    • Acknowledgements
    • Author contributions
    • Funding
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